by Songlin Tang
Jinan, China (SPX) Jan 13, 2026
As international vitality transitions speed up, distributed photovoltaic programs have change into a cornerstone of rural vitality transformation in China, shifting many rural households from passive vitality shoppers to lively prosumers.
A analysis workforce from the College of Economics at Shandong Know-how and Enterprise College has developed a multi agent dynamic sport mannequin to investigate how key stakeholders in rural distributed PV programs work together and make strategic choices.
The mannequin focuses on 4 core stakeholders within the rural PV ecosystem: village organizations, PV enterprises, grid firms, and rural households, capturing their totally different incentives and constraints inside a unified analytical framework.
“The agricultural distributed PV ecosystem is a posh community of interactions,” stated corresponding creator Songlin Tang. “Our mannequin captures the heterogeneity of rural households and the vital function of grid firms, filling gaps in earlier analysis that ignored these key elements.”
Situation simulations utilizing the mannequin yielded three predominant insights for rural PV improvement, beginning with the significance of collaboration between PV enterprises and village organizations to advertise the excess electrical energy feed in mannequin.
The evaluation signifies that rural households with low electrical energy demand are likely to favor a full feed in mannequin the place all generated electrical energy is provided to the grid, whereas larger demand households favor the excess feed in strategy that helps self consumption alongside grid gross sales.
A second discovering warns that aggressive promotion of the excess electrical energy feed in mannequin can improve the danger of curtailment, significantly when grid capability and family demand should not aligned with rising put in capability.
“Growing self consumption necessities helps scale back waste, however it could additionally restrict whole put in capability,” Tang defined. “Discovering the precise steadiness is important for environment friendly vitality use.”
The third main discovering highlights that rising rural family incomes assist higher funding in surplus electrical energy feed in initiatives, however bodily grid capability in the end constrains the effectivity and scale of this funding.
Based on the research, grid upgrades that aren’t matched by corresponding progress in electrical energy demand result in inefficient use of capital, reinforcing the conclusion that grid capability stays the decisive issue for long run improvement.
The researchers examined a number of technique mixtures and concluded that PV enterprises typically obtain larger profitability by way of tools gross sales fairly than direct long run venture funding in rural areas.
Village organizations profit extra after they cooperate intently with PV enterprises on promotion and venture group, utilizing their native data to cut back data asymmetry and speed up adoption amongst households.
Sensitivity analyses within the research present that each family earnings and grid improve prices play pivotal roles in shaping adoption patterns, funding decisions, and curtailment dangers throughout totally different family varieties.
Greater earnings households are extra keen to spend money on PV programs beneath the excess feed in mannequin, whereas low earnings households that undertake this mannequin face a higher chance of curtailment as a result of their decrease electrical energy demand leaves extra surplus vitality uncovered to grid constraints.
“The research gives a scientific foundation for coverage design,” Tang stated. “We suggest deepening village enterprise cooperation, establishing dynamic self consumption ratio mechanisms based mostly on grid capability, and implementing regionally differentiated improvement methods.”
The workforce expects that focused cooperation mechanisms will help tailor venture constructions to native situations, together with variations in earnings ranges, load profiles, and grid capabilities amongst rural areas.
Trying forward, the researchers plan to develop the sport mannequin to incorporate evolving coverage subsidy frameworks and the growing function of vitality storage applied sciences in smoothing technology and demand mismatches.
In addition they intention to conduct empirical assessments in particular rural areas, utilizing actual world venture knowledge to validate and refine the mannequin’s assumptions and to higher translate the theoretical findings into sensible suggestions for rural vitality planners.
This analysis was supported by the Normal Venture of the Nationwide Social Science Fund of China, “Analysis on the Pathway of Rural Vitality Transition in China from the Prosumer Perspective” (21BJY113), and by the Scientific Analysis Begin up Fund Venture of Shandong Know-how and Enterprise College, “Mechanism and Pathway of Low carbon Transition within the Energy Sector from a Regional Coordination Perspective” (306657).
Analysis Report:Research on the behavioral mechanisms of rural distributed photovoltaic development: A view of prosumer perspective
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