by Riko Seibo
Tokyo, Japan (SPX) Dec 31, 2025
The intermittent output of solar energy creates challenges for grid operators who should preserve provide and demand in stability. Conventional numerical climate prediction fashions usually deal with cloud initialization poorly, which degrades ultra-short-term photo voltaic irradiance forecasts over time.
Researchers Min Chen and Liangchen Guo of the Institute of City Meteorology on the China Meteorological Administration have constructed a 0-6 hour ultra-short-term international horizontal irradiance forecasting system for China by combining knowledge from the Fengyun-4B satellite tv for pc with the regional numerical forecast mannequin RMAPS-ST. Their work seems in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters in a paper titled “Extremely-short-term international horizontal irradiance forecasting in China primarily based on satellite tv for pc and numerical climate prediction fashions.”
The group examined two strategies to initialize clouds within the mannequin. In a passive mode, the system considers solely advection and diffusion of hydrometeors, whereas in an lively mode it nudges hydrometeors throughout the first forecast hour.
Each methods reduce forecast errors by greater than 7 p.c within the first quarter-hour of prediction, with the passive mode giving the most effective efficiency throughout the first 4 hours. Error reductions attain about 9.41 p.c in summer season on common, and a few areas equivalent to Sichuan see enhancements of greater than 20 p.c.
Corresponding writer Min Chen famous that, “By correcting preliminary cloud fields with real-time satellite tv for pc knowledge, we basically gave the forecast system a ‘stay cloud map’. This isn’t solely a technical breakthrough but additionally gives a sensible device for grid scheduling and China’s dual-carbon technique.”
The present system performs finest in heat seasons and for brief lead occasions, whereas forecast errors develop because the vary will increase. Future improvement will add time-varying aerosol knowledge and synthetic intelligence strategies to enhance illustration of cloud-radiation interactions, with the intention of supporting unbiased and high-precision solar energy forecasting throughout China.
Analysis Report:Ultra-short-term global horizontal irradiance forecasting in China based on satellite and numerical weather prediction models
Associated Hyperlinks
Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences
Solar Science News at SpaceDaily
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